The SIVAM Project: Brazilian National Defense; International Politics and Power in the Amazon

2. Description:
The Controversial Nature of Bilateral Trade: Open Bidding Processes and "High" Commercial Diplomacy

The SIVAM Amazon project made international headlines in 1995. Though the project itself had been under consideration since 1990, US assertion in the bidding process became a Clinton administration priority in 1994 (Note 1) and substantially involved intense public lobbying from Clinton administration officials on behalf of the high-profile US weapons manufacturer and defense contractor Raytheon Corporation. State and media support was lent to that organization after both Raytheon and the Brazilian government repeatedly became enveloped in controversy, indeed embattled by successive events of direct importance to the successful bid and award and receipt of the contract.

An initial contract awarded to Raytheon was annulled by Brazilian judge in July of 1995 after irregularities were allegedly discovered in the adjudication of the evaluative work and process conducted. This work had initially yielded Raytheon's successful receipt of the contract to construct and install the surveillance system. At this point Raytheon had apparently won out the competition for the contract against 11 other prospective contractors. However, allegations that prospective French defense industry representatives had offered substantial bribes to influential Brazilians in order to secure the contract were exposed in the press previous to the award during 1995, reportedly with the help of the Central Intelligence Agency. It was also during the latter period of the same year that Brazilian parliamentary members attempted to block the official sanctioning of the project and the award of the lucrative contract to the major US defense industry contractor; the Boston, Massachusetts-based Raytheon Company. Raytheon is well known as a high-profile contractor in the defense materials and related industries. This is due in part to its manufacture of the Patriot missile, which was used so effectively during the Persian Gulf Crisis (Note 2).

SIVAM, the acronym for "System for Vigilance over the Amazon, is considered to be primarily a surveillance project for use in curbing the trafficking of illegal narcotics. The project in its entirety involves a complex radar system substantially requiring satellite linkages. Furthermore SIVAM requires the installation of infra-red sensors on military aircraft for the exploitation of its full potential. However, in addition to its drug war purposes, it was very publicly held and offered that the installation could be used to monitor and curb a number of actions directly affecting and detrimental to the environment, specifically in the Amazon region (Note 3). As a result, some observers noted that the SIVAM project was supported by environmentalists in agreement with industry executives that the surveillance system could be used for the direct and overt protection of environmental concerns. The nature of these concerns fall both within and without the limitations of Brazilian law and international protocols, and include illegal logging, the coerced movement of indigenous peoples in the Amazon region, gold mining and deforestation (Note 4). Furthermore, the project could, and ostensibly would also monitor soil conditions, air pollution and weather within the 2 million square miles of its scope (Note 5).

Opposition to the radar project, with no precedent the largest of its type in the region; and from a strictly environmentalist point of view the greenest or most eco-friendly project sanctioned or undertaken by the Brazilian state; was reported to stem most forcefully from farmers and miners, in addition to drug traffickers and other groups engaged in criminal activity (Note 6). This has been apparently due to these groups long-standing support of a hands-off policy regarding the large and undeveloped area in question. However when the scandal increased in intensity towards the end of 1995, other sources registered that environmental groups were in reality opposed to the construction of the installation, noting their belief that in contrast to the presumably central proposed environmental purposes of the project; ostensibly to protect the vast Amazon jungle, the project had ulterior primary motives (Note 7).

This opposition was grounded in the contention that despite some dissenting opinions on the project and its utility within its upper echelons, the Brazilian military had never supported such a project with such enthusiasm to date. This support was reported as vigorous by some observers. Furthermore, the Brazilian military authorities have long been accused of being underhand in their public dealings by some elements, in addition to being less than forthright and dedicated in the combating of illegal narco- trafficking (Note 8). Concerns regarding the possibility of providing a basis for foreign inroads and domination in this region also figure in military and civilian skepticism and criticisms of SIVAM. Border disputes with all of its regional neighbors in the Amazon region have interspersed Brazilian history. The greater part of the Amazonian rain forest is situated within Brazilian territorial boundaries. The project would involve a network of radar, satellite and ground stations which would monitor the Brazilian region of the Amazon's basin.

The Enterprise for the America's Initiative of the Bush administration and the Clinton administration's subsequent Summit of the America's both called for regional action and changes in economic and cooperative policy toward the creation of a hemispheric trade area and the liberalization of economies in the region to permit economic growth. This would be achieved by the replacement of import-substitution policies, particularly evident in the Americas since the 1960's. The removal of inhibitors and obstacles to trade and investment inherent in economic liberalization has become strikingly evident throughout the hemisphere in recent years and particularly so in the cases and examples of Mexico, Argentina and Chile. But Brazil was noted as having made little progress with regard to economic reform as of April of 1992 (Note 10). Similarly, improvements in relations between the US and Brazil were seen to hinge on improved cooperation and agreement on trade issues (Note 10).

Brazil has been the foremost opponent of implementation of the proposed hemispheric trade bloc. However, a joint report by Brazilian foreign minister Lampreia and US Trade Representative, Kantor in November 1995 noted substantial progress on bilateral trade and issues such as intellectual property rights, anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws, consultations on the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas and other obstacles in areas such as investment (Note 11). As such Brazilian actions of note at the international level can clearly be considered relevant to its internal, domestic trajectories, and naturally, its internal political life. The opposite is also true inasmuch as clearly changes in Brazil's outward national projection can also be effected or altered by political events and action within.

Reports surfaced in November 1995 that the radar manufacturer Raytheon, was involved in a bribery scandal when leaks regarding a wire-tapped conversation between a ranking national security aide to Brazilian president Cardoso, Gomes dos Santos and a Raytheon official became public through a press release of transcripts of the taped conversation. Brazilian Senate approval of US Export- Import Bank financing was delayed as a result of the ensuing public outcry. (Note 12). While Raytheon denied any wrongdoing, the Clinton administration urged that the project financing be approved. At the same time Cardoso himself publicly declared that comments made during the conversation, in particular references to a bribe to a Senator opposed to the project, were made in jest (Note 13). Cardoso is regarded to consider the SIVAM project of vital national interest due to its use in anti-narcotrafficking operations, monitoring of economic development projects and limiting environmental damage. Dos Santos resigned shortly afterwards as did an Air Force minister who during the course of bidding and evaluation process had stayed at the Raytheon sales representative's house. Charges that the wire-taps were the work of the political opposition in Brazil also arose from US industry executives.

The revelation of the tapes also doubtless contributed to a change in Amazon region Senator Miranda's voting decision and preference. Shortly after the leak, he was noted as having announced his opposition to the project on grounds that the deal was too expensive. He had earlier been in favor of the project (Note 14). However, claims that the project was too costly had been repeated during discussions on the project and its viability in previous months (Note 15).

A 'supercommission' was created shortly thereafter by the Brazilian senate to investigate the bribery charges, of which Miranda was made a member. However, as he continued to block the financing arrangements for the project, suspiciously, he was later removed. The late US Commerce Secretary, Ron Brown is noted as publicly charging that Brazilian companies linked to companies which failed to secure the radar contract were responsible for attempts to derail it, an allusion to the Brazilian and international commitment to equity in bidding processes for public contracts. He had personally made Raytheon's case with Brazilian officials in 1994 (Note 16). The supercommission identified in the course of its proceedings that the bidding process should have been made public. Former President Franco had made the project a national security issue by executive decree, thus eliminating the possibility of transparent decision-making regarding the award of the contract. However, the renewed possibility of opportunity to compete for the contract intensified overseas interest in the SIVAM issue once again as international defense industry giants began to hint at their own renewed interest in securing the contract.

Competitors for the contract, Daimler-Benz Aerospace of Germany, were identified as interested in taking part in a public bidding process in December 1995 (Note 17), as were the French organizations previously defeated by Raytheon after the earlier allegations of bribery, Thomson-Alcatel (Note 18). Two Russian companies also offered to complete the project at little more than a third of the cost of the Raytheon contract (Note 19). Disputes also arose between US competitors for the sub-contracted production of the radar component of the larger Raytheon contract. Lockheed Martin was accused by Westinghouse of offering an untested and excessively expensive radar system (Note 20).

As a direct consequence of the impending nullification of the contract and to limit political fallout from the controversy, Cardoso called a meeting of the National Defense Council made up of the congressional leadership, ministers of the military and several other military and foreign affairs officials, to discuss, if not in order to resolve the crisis. Agreement was reached that all parties present concurred that the project was a priority and desirable for the country. The new Air Force minister Brigadier Lelio Lobo Viana commented shortly afterwards that there were technical reasons for continuing with the Raytheon project. In this regard it is noteworthy that anonymous sources from the Defense Council leaked that sources in the US Pentagon were applying pressure to finalize the award of the contract to Raytheon (Note 21).

Senate hearings to confirm ex-President Franco's appointment as Ambassador to the Organization of American States provided an opportunity for the questioning of Franco on his earlier decree, during which he explained that he had been convinced to sign the decree by Brigadier Lobo during his previous appointment as Air Force minister, and by the former national security chief, Admiral Mario Flores (Note 22).

With President Cardoso's legislative agenda for desired economic and constitutional reforms seriously undermined and inevitably delayed as a result of the wire-tapping scandal and public uproar at the possibility of public corruption in the Amazon surveillance project, financing and concluding the SIVAM contract became an early priority for the 1996 election year. Another scandal had also surfaced in late 1995 regarding the so-called 'pink file' which concerned illegal political campaign contributions and the violation of electoral laws, making what for Cardoso was vividly an already bad situation worse. Amongst those named in the file were three of Cardoso's most powerful political allies (Note 23). The SIVAM project hung in the balance and despite moderate reforms made earlier, the proposed reforms of regulation in investment in the telecommunications, oil and mining industries in addition to infrastructure and development slated for 1996, were yet to be achieved (Note 24).

Brazilian Self-Assertion in the International Arena
The concept of grandeza or 'greatness' has long figured in the Brazilian public psyche and historically Brazil has at times sought what some observers have considered a certain high rank in the international community. This notion was most evident in the post-WWII era, the exemplar case of this desired international recognition amongst the world's most powerful countries being found in Brazil's refused admission as permanent member to the UN Security Council. A historic desire for prominence in international affairs is evident in any examination of Brazil's international behavior (Note 25), and is more recently borne out in a Vox Populi poll which noted that 57% of Brazilians felt that Brazil was making significant progress towards becoming a 'great' power (Note 26). With this in mind or perhaps in this respect, Cardoso embarked on a 12-day trip to China, Malaysia and Spain. Relations with the former have been previously suggested as of a strategic nature (Note 27).

Later, in January Cardoso signed a bilateral accord with India on the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes which included clauses on technological and scientific information exchange, while on a four-day visit to that country. With neither country being a signatory of the Nuclear Arms Non-Proliferation Treaty, the utilization of nuclear power for non-violent means by this country remains a security question for many skeptical observers around the world. Additionally, Indian research on the conversion of Thorium to nuclear fuel is known to be at an advanced stage. Brazil, which possesses the largest untapped quantities of Thorium worldwide, suspended experimentation and research with the substance over ten years ago (Note 28). Furthermore, in addition to calls for increased bilateral trade between the two countries, the Brazilian President offered his support for permanent Indian membership on the UN Security Council (Note 29). Shortly afterwards in Bonn, Germany, the non-governmental organization 'Capoib', lodged a formal protest against an EU Amazon project.

'Capoib', the umbrella organization for organizations supporting the efforts to preserve the homelands of indigenous peoples of the Amazon, protested Brazilian government reforms concerning the demarcation of native lands in the region. The objective of this international campaign was to halt a $20 million EU-funded pilot project until such time as the Brazilian government reversed its decision to allow prospective developers to appeal cases in which they are found to be encroaching on native lands (Note 30). This protest was followed by condemnation and criticism of the developers legal right to appeal by domestic and foreign NGO's and Indian organizations. These organizations claimed that up to half of the territory; native lands by a 1991 presidential decree, could be contested by developers and possibly lost at later stages by the Indians (Note 31).

The government is noted as having plans to move against illegal miners in March of 1996 by destroying more than 20 airfields and impounding aircraft used to illegally mine gold on the Yanomami reservation in Roraima state which borders on Venezuela. The effort would be coordinated with Venezuelan authorities, the Brazilian Environmental Institute and the National Indian Foundation and while the reservation of 23,000 residents was demarcated by the government in 1991, military spending to prevent incursions by miners was reported to have cost millions of dollars (Note 32). Previous clashes between the indigenous groups and miners had resulted in an estimated 2000 dead from violence and disease. In July 1993, miners were found responsible for the slaughter of 16 Yanomami but were released after a brief holding (note 33).

The finalization of the contract seemed closer on the 7th of February when supercommission rapporteur Ramex Tebet intimated that approval of the contract was imminent pending the findings of the federal accounts tribunal (Note 32). The project was recommended for approval soon afterwards (Note 33), and on March 4, 1996, the United States and Brazil declared "a 'new partnership' to protect and develop the Amazon rain forest" when US Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, visited the National Institute for Amazon Research (Note 34). With "old prejudices... dismissed" in the words of the governor of Amazonas State; Mendes; Christopher commented that...

"at the Rio Summit five years ago we forged a global commitment to pursue sustainable development, to cooperate on climate change and biodiversity, and to take the responsibility for the sound management of our forests. Now we are transforming sustainable development from an abstract challenge into a concrete agenda" (Note 35)."

Conclusion
It is apparent that the SIVAM case provides a clear example of domestic policy being consumed by and with matters of international concern. This is in some ways indicative of the globalizing effects of the international economy, fostered or shepherded in this case by the contemporary liberal trade regime. Both trade and economic development in addition to foreign policy; given Brazilian designs nationally and internationally, factor into this regionally and environmentally important case. On examination we can ascertain the position and condition in which a country such as Brazil finds itself and how it can assert itself and manage its projections globally and internationally. With reference specifically to the western hemisphere this case impacts on regional and hemispheric relations both in an inter (in the bilateral US-Brazil) and intra-regional sense (from the South American perspective), and it is evident that Brazilian influence in the several realms mentioned here cannot be easily dismissed.

The Guyanese-Venezuelan dispute was ultimately desensitized by the Trinidadian-sponsored discussions and negotiation which led to the Port-of-Spain Protocol in which a moratorium on conflicting territorial claims was agreed. However, earlier indirect Brazilian military intervention in the dispute in the form of highly visible maneuvers by the Brazilian Armed Forces in the northern reaches of its Amazonian region arguably forced a rethink of potential opportunistic actions by Surinamese forces. These forces, in the wake of the Sergeant's Revolt in Suriname were arguably threatening from Guyana's east, whilst that country underwent a period of severe civil unrest. It is also evident that cooperation as seen in joint efforts against illegal activities in the region with Venzuela highlighted earlier, that Brazil's potency is not limited to threatening or coercive actions. (Note 30)

3. Related Cases:
Defense and Narcotics
(1) COCA
(2) COLCOCA
(3) RAYTHEON

Wood/Lumber/Logging
(4) COLDEFOR
(5) AFRICA
(6) BRAZIL
(7) MALAY
(8) NICARAG
(9) TAIGA
(10) PHILWOOD
(11) USWOOD
(12) VIETNAM
(13) PULP
(14) CHOPSTIK

Soil, Water & Air Pollution
(15) MANGROVE.HTM
(16) GRAND.HTM
(17) CHILEAIR

Mining
(18) GEDDES
(19) BOLIVIA
(20) BRAGOLD

Dams/Hydroelectric Power
(21) YACYRETA

Nuclear power
(22) DUALUSE

Controls & Treaties
(23) CONTROL
(24) BIODIV
(25) FINTECH
(26) LATTECH

Key words
(1): Trade Product = ELECTRONICS
(2): Bio-Geography = TROPical
(3): Domain: = South America
4. Draft Author: Justin J. O'Brien Date: April, 1996

B. LEGAL CLUSTER

NGO: CAPOIB, Brazilian Indian Village Council, Brazilian Environmental Institute, National
Indian Foundation

C. Geographic Clusters
9. Geographic Locations
a. Geographic Domain: South America
b. Geographic Site: AMAZON
c. Geographic Impact: BRAZIL

10. Sub-National Factors: YES
The political culture and political conditions of Brazil are salient factors in the progression and development of this controversy. This is evident from the initial solicitation for bids to the conclusion and Raytheon's ultimate successful receipt of the contract.

11.Type of Habitat: TROPical

IV. Trade Filters
12. Type of Measure: [SUBSIDY].
There is a subsidy from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.

13. Direct vs. Indirect Impact: DIRect impact on both narcotrafficking and illegal actions in the Amazon region such as illegal logging, farming, mining and coerced relocation of indigenous peoples, in areas within the scope of the surveillance system. Also important in terms of regional politics, regionalism, free trade areas and the proliferation of trade agreements, the impetus for which is exacted externally.

14. Relation of Measure to Resource Impact
Directly Related: YES LOGGING
Indirectly Related: YES NARCOTICS
Not Related: NO
Process Related: YES, HABITAT Loss

15. Trade Identification Project: ELECTRONICS
16. Economic Data: HIGH (US$1.4 billion)
The elaborate project includes radar, satellites and infra-red sensors on helicopters and other aircraft. Furthermore, the project provides the opportunity for substantial domestic employment through the construction of the necessary sites and installations, and erection of the surveillance system.

17. Impact of Measure on Trade Competitiveness: HIGH

18. Industry Sector: ELECTRONICS

19. Exporter and Importer: USA and BRAZIL

E. Environmental Clusters
20. Environmental Problem Type: HABITAT

As mentioned above the sheer size and promise of the Amazon region necessarily encompasses the full range of environmental concerns, including those related to species; plant and animal, loss, habitat loss for these and indigenous tribes, and various types of polluting activity including that related to illegal gold mining activities.

21. Name, Type and Diversity of Species
Name: MANY
Type: MANY
Diversity: The Amazonian rainforest contains over 25% of the world's plant and animal species, many of them unknown and uncatalogued, within an area of approximately 2 million square miles. It has been suggested that to date perhaps less than 50% of the plant and animal species in existence in the Amazon are known to outsiders. Furthermore the Amazon basin and rain forest is considered likely to yield as yet undiscovered data for expected use in medicinal innovation through the discovery and study of these.

Additionally, there exist a wealth of mineral deposits and lumber and the Amazon region is home to native peoples who, numbering substantially and whose plight is known worldwide, as yet still live apart from mainstream society using and living in the ways of their ancient ancestors. The concession of demarcated reservations was won by indigenous peoples from the government only after intense lobbying both domestically and internationally, by native and Brazilian groups and foreign pressure groups. One resulting problem related to illegal mining and logging in the Amazon region has been the reduction in numbers of animal species considered game which these tribes hunt. This has been as a result of loss of habitat in addition to increased economic and commercial activity.

The vitality and preservation of the Amazonian rain forest as an international site of importance also reflects the area's ecological and environmental value around the world. It is generally considered that global air and atmospheric conditions worsen as the forest becomes more and more depleted. It is clear that the effective use of SIVAM would greatly enhance prospects for a reduction in deforestation, consequently improving opportunities for sustainable development in addition to future medicinal and medical research. At the same time efforts to preserve the ancestral environment of the indigenous peoples of the region through monitoring for the purposes of containing, deterring, limiting or preventing incursions and movements, soil conditions and deforestation in the area allow the view that Sivam is without doubt a positive good for Brazilians, the state, the region and the globe.

22. Impact and Effect: HIGH and REGUL

23. Urgency and Lifetime: HIGH and 100's of years

24. SUBSTITUTE: RECYCling

VI. OTHER Factors
25. Culture: YES

26. Human Rights: YES

27. Transborder: YES
Of critical importance to the conservation, preservation and management of the area's resources, the Amazon region of Brazil shares national boundaries with Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.

28. Relevant Literature

"Autoridad autonoma para conservar el medio ambiente", El Mundo (Lima) Feb.6, 1996.

Barros, A., "The Brazilian Military in the Late 1980's and Early 1990's: Is the Risk of Intervention Gone?" in "The Military and Democracy: The Future of Civil-Military Relations
in Latin America, Goodman, L., Ed. Lexington, Lexington Books, 1990.

Inter-American Development Bank, Press Release, "17.01.96 IDB Approves $17.2 Million For Environment, Tax System, in Nicaragua", PR2102©PR2089, NR-004/96.

"Invasions begin again after truce", Latin American Regional Reports Brazil, RB-96©02, Feb.15, 1996.

"Juggling growth and austerity", Latin America Weekly Report, Feb.22, 1996.

Mathews, J., "In Denial About Global Warming", The Washington Post, B. Jan.29, 1996.

Moss, A. H,. "Free Trade and Environmental Enhancement: Are They Compatible in the Americas?", (Sustainable Development and Latin America) in 'Trade and the Environment:
Law, Economics and Policy', Zaelke et al. Eds., Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1993, p.'s 109-120.

1. "Cardoso seeks to limit Sivam damage", Latin American Weekly Report, Dec.14, 1995 p.572.
2. Mintz, J., "Raytheon's Amazon Deal Hits Snag", Business/Finance, International Herald, Nov. 27, 1995.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. See note 1.
8. The Brazilian military ousted the country's civilian president Goulart in 1964, and effectively ruled through junta and civilians chosen by military junta until democracy was restored in 1985. During the intervening period the Brazilian military engaged in institution-building, part of which; the Electoral College, eventually yielded this return to democracy by the election of a moderate civilian leader, Tancredo Neves, politically active in the opposition since the installation of authoritarian rule in 1964.
9. Coplin., W.D. and M.K. O'Leary, World Political Risk Forecast in Planning Review, March/April 1992, p.27.
10. Ibid.
11. "U.S., Brazil get cozier on trade issues", The Miami Herald, Nov. 13, 1995.
12. Ibid.
13. See note 2.
14. Ibid.
15. "Brazil scandal stalls U.S. contract", The Miami Herald, Nov. 27, 1995
. 16. See note 1.
17. Ibid.
18. "France back in contention", Latin America Weekly Report, Jan. 28, 1996, p.16.
19. "Lockheed Vs. Westinghouse", Latin America Weekly Report, Dec.21, 1995, p. 580.
20. Ibid.
21. See note 1.
22. Ibid.
23. "'Pink file' case adds to a wave of scandals", Latin American Weekly Report, Dec.21, 1995, and "Brazil Report", Economy & Business, January 1996, p.3.
24. Brazil country report in Latin American Weekly Report, Dec.28, 1995. p. 590.
25. Philip Kelly provides a deep analysis of Brazil's international conduct and foreign policy behavior in "Geopolitical Tension Areas in South America: The Question of Brazilian Territorial Expansion", in Inter-American Relations: The Latin American Perspective, Biles R. ed., Lynne Reinner Publishers, 1988, pp. 190-209.
26. "Glad to be Brazilian", Latin American Weekly Report, Jan.18, 1996, p.16.
27. "Presidente brasileno viaja a China, Malasia y Espana" (Orig. Spanish), Associated Press, Dec.10, 1995.
28. "Cardoso to discuss nuclear energy in India", Brazil, Assocated Press, Jan. 21, 1996, "Cardoso aprovechara viaja a India para firmar acuerdo nuclear" (Orig. Spanish), EFE, Jan 21, 1996.
29. "Cardoso exhorta a aumentar la relacion comercial India- Brasil" (Orig. Spanish), New Delhi, EFE, Jan. 25, 1996, and "Brazil backs India for Security Council", Washington Times, Jan. 27, 1996.
30. "Indians focus land protests on Bonn", Latin American Weekly Report, Feb 1, 1996, p.44
31. "NGO outcry against reservation decree", Latin American Regional Reports - Brazil, Feb. 15, 1996, p. 7. See also "Brazilian Indians End Summit" Brasilia, Brazil, Associated Press, Feb.1, 1996. The Brazilian Indian Village Council vowed to also approach the Untied Nations and Organization of American States to protest incursions into their territories by developers and the government's stance on appeals of Indian land grants.
32. "Brazil Targets Illegal Miners", Brasilia, Brazil, Associated Press, Feb.28, 1996.
33. Ibid.
34. "Sivam Progress", Latin American Weekly Report, Feb. 22, 1996, p.80.
35. "Brazil Ok's Amazon Radar Plan", Brasilia, Assocated Press, Feb. 15, 1996.
36. "US, Brazil Ok Amazon Pact", Manaus, Associated Press, March 4, 1996. This was the first serious visit to multiple countries in Latin America by a US Secretary of State since the 1988 visit of then-Secretary George Schultz. For more on the substance of Christopher's comments made during this visit see "Touring Christopher pays homage to Latin America's gains", by Patrick Worship, Sao Paolo, Reuters News Agency, March 4, 1996.
37. See note 34, Associated Press.
38. Philip Kelly (see note 25) provides perspectives on several Brazilian roles and scenarios, amongst them as a hegemonic power, integrator and catalyst for regional stability, growth and development.